Study: Ban on Gen Z tobacco sales could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths

Pipe dream?

Researchers say 1.2 million lung cancer deaths worldwide could be prevented over 70 years by banning the sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products to people born between 2006 and 2010.

“Lung cancer is a major killer worldwide and two-thirds of deaths are linked to a preventable risk factor – smoking,” said study author Julia Rey Brandariz from the University of Santiago de Compostela in Spain.

“Our modeling highlights how much there is to gain for governments considering implementing ambitious plans towards a smoke-free generation,” added Brandariz. “Not only could this save huge numbers of lives, it could massively reduce the burden on health systems of treating and caring for people with poor health as a result of smoking.”

Brandariz’s first-of-its-kind simulation study – published Wednesday in The Lancet Public Health – suggests that creating a small smoke-free generation could prevent 40% of lung cancer deaths expected to occur in this cohort by in the year 2095.

The researchers say they selected this group, whose members are currently between 13 and 18 years old, because the legal age for purchasing tobacco products is 18 in most of the countries included in the analysis.

Banning tobacco sales to these Gen Zers would have the biggest impact in Europe, according to the study.

“While smoking rates in high-income countries have fallen in recent years, lung cancer remains the leading cause of death and disease,” said study author Isabelle Soerjomataram of the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

“In low- and middle-income countries, which have rapidly growing youth populations, the impact of banning tobacco sales may be even greater,” continued Soerjomataram.

But nurse practitioner Jennifer Stevens, director of Northwell Health’s Center for Tobacco Control, expressed doubt that the proposal could be implemented.

“There is no doubt that preventing and eliminating the sale of tobacco cigarettes would increase mortality and decrease health care costs globally,” Stevens, who is not involved in the new research, told The Post. “However, for decades lawmakers have tried to oppose tobacco companies with some but not all success.”

Stevens said the focus should remain on the implementation, continuation and enforcement of policies banning smoking in public areas as well as educational programs, especially for younger generations, that emphasize the dangers and long-term effects of smoking.

The new research accompanies a separate study published Wednesday in The Lancet Public Health showing that reducing smoking prevalence from current levels to 5% worldwide by 2050 would result in an extra year of life expectancy for men and 0.2 years for women.

The international team of researchers predicts that global life expectancy will increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.3 years in 2050.

It is estimated that after adjusting for age, 21% of men and 4% of women will smoke in 2050, with considerable variation by region.

The study authors say that if smoking had been completely eliminated last year, life expectancy could increase by another 1.5 years for men and 0.4 years for women in 2050.

Smoking is considered the leading preventable cause of death in the US – it is responsible for about 1 in 5 deaths each year, according to the American Cancer Society.

In addition to lung cancer, smoking greatly increases the risk of heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

The researchers noted various limitations to the two modeling studies, including not taking into account the potential health effects of e-cigarettes and potential health care innovations, such as better detection or treatment of lung cancer.